本文围绕AI时代是否会改变人口空间分布规律这一核心问题,系统分析人工智能对就业结构、人口流动与中国新型城镇化的影响。本文认为,AI对就业的影响同时包含替代效应、创造效应、互补效应与收入效应,并由此推动就业结构向服务业转型。AI时代的人口空间分布不会走向去中心化,相反将进一步强化人口向沿海地区、向大城市、向中心城区集聚的趋势。服务业将成为AI时代人类就业增长的主要来源,而人机协作能力、社交能力与城市生活经验将成为劳动者的核心能力。在此基础上,本文讨论了AI时代中国城镇化进入的新阶段及其治理内涵,并指出中国当前同时存在服务业占比偏低与城镇化水平偏低的双重不足,AI时代就业服务化将推动中国进入城镇化新阶段。面对这一趋势,政府治理的重点需要从传统工业化阶段的土地开发与制造业扩张,转向人口吸纳、公共服务供给、数据开放协同与社会保障重构,这就要求政府对激励机制进行调整。应大力推进普惠性AI战略,加快流动人口市民化,推动教育体系向人机协作能力培养转型,完善适应灵活就业的社会保障制度,并大力推动新一轮城市更新,以构建适应AI时代的新型城镇化治理体系。

This paper focuses on the core question of whether the AI era will alter the spatial distribution patterns of the population, systematically analyzing the impact of artificial intelligence on employment structure, population mobility, and new-type urbanization in China. The article argues that AI.s impact on employment encompasses substitution effects, creation effects, complementarity effects, and income effects, thereby further driving the transformation of the employment structure towards the service sector. In the AI era, the spatial distribution of the population will not decentralize; on the contrary, it will further strengthen the trend of population concentration in coastal regions, large cities, and central urban areas. The service sector will become the primary source of employment growth in the AI era, with human-AI collaboration skills, social skills, and urban living experience emerging as core competencies for workers.Building on this analysis, the paper discusses the new stage of China.s urbanization in the AI era and its governance implications. It contends that China currently faces dual shortcomings: a relatively low share of the service sector and a low level of urbanization. The shift towards service-oriented employment in the AI era will propel China into a new phase of urbanization. In response to this trend, the focus of governance must shift from land development and manufacturing expansion during the traditional industrialization stage to population absorption, public service provision, data openness and collaboration, and social security restructuring. This shift requires adjustments in government incentive mechanisms. Efforts should be made to promote an inclusive AI strategy, accelerate the integration of migrant populations into urban life, reform the education system to cultivate human-AI collaboration skills, improve social security systems to accommodate flexible employment, and vigorously advance a new round of urban renewal, thereby constructing a new-type urbanization governance system suited to the AI era.